>> what do you think of when you see a tree? a treatment for cancer? fuel for our cars? do you think of hope for the environment, where food, clothing, shelter? we do. weyerhaeuser, growing ideas. >> you would think we could get more than eight-vote margin in

new hampshire. >> this week on "inside washington," mitt romney squeaks' out a win in iowa. >> thank you so much, iowa. >> rick santorum's campaign pace up with a strong second place finish. >> this momentum is going to continue. >> ron paul scorza respectable third, and in fourth place, and not happy newt gingrich gunning for mitt romney. >> find it amazing that the news media continues to say he is the most electable republican. >> we are headed to new hampshire and then south carolina. captioned by the national captioning institute --www.ncicap.org-- >> not since jimmy carter finished second to uncommitted

in 1976 has there been this much excitement in the iowa caucuses. rick santorum had every right to take a victory lap tuesday night. nobody has ever worked harder. two weeks ago, he was a long shot. ron paul -- hats off to him for bringing in young voters. gingrich's fuming and perry has decided that south carolina is nice this time of year. is rick santorum good for the long haul? >> i think he could be. we have had a lot of pretenders who crashed and burned. he is articulate, experienced, knowledgeable. he had been written off because when he ran in 2006, he lost by a huge margin. he had not been in public life since. he showed that you can resurrect yourself in iowa with hard work, like jimmy carter had done in

1976. i think he is the one who is the most plausible challenger. >> can santorum knock romney off the track? >> he will have a hard time doing that, because he will come under scrutiny and he has the and the t of john mccain. john mccain really has a thing about rick santorum, having worked for rick santorum in that losing campaign, responding to santorum's request for help. santorum turnaround in 2008 and went after john mccain in a big way, not just to endorse romney, but also to attack mccain for his temperament and things like that. mccain not only went to new hampshire to endorse romney, he went to south carolina and continued to poke santorum. >> a lot of personal stuff here. >> i don't think santorum can win. this is all a lot of fun, but i

think charles wrote a column in "the washington post" on friday that sounded pretty dutiful to me. he is kind of plausible, but not really plausible. there is a big kabuki here. >> i am with evan. i suppose theoretically he could knock off ramadi if all the conservative, particularly the social issue people, coalesce around him. at the moment that does not look like it is going to happen. if he got the nomination, obama would win quite easily. >> a few minutes ago, mark shields, who is in iowa for the caucuses, sat in front of a camera in new hampshire for us. i ask him what we learn from iowa. >> every vote as town, but beyond that, we learned that rick santorum, in his election

night speech, was able to establish and narrative that had been lacking, that he was the proud product of not privilege or power, but the grandson of an italian immigrant coal miner who lived in a company town, in a shack. he drew a rather stark line between himself and the background of mitt romney without ever once naming romney. it was quite moving, too. >> if you are more interested in the campaign that can beat obama, mitt romney is your man, right? >> absolutely. his hole card remains collectability. his credentials, experience, background, and a cheat and electability. >> -- and achievements and electability. >> what happened to newt gingrich? >> 45% of every dollar spent on television in iowa was spent on attacking newt gingrich. that is an amazing figure.

newt gives them a lot of material. >> santorum's speech tuesday night stirred the blood. it was good stuff. romney seems to be saying i am confident and not obama and a vote for me, but that doesn't stir the blood. >> but it will get him the nomination. this will drag on for awhile and but santorum is a social conservative who cannot beat obama. enough republicans are going to figure that out. >> there is this schism in the republican party between the business conservatives and the social conservatives. romney is the business conservative. this happens almost every time an 8 is really kind of interesting. what is the clinton line? republicans fall in line. that is sort of what you see happening with the establishment, falling in line for romney. it is not going to be a cakewalk, but there isn't an

alternative that really works. even the money is coming in now to santorum, but is late. >> but is not too late to derail mitt romney. even if romney does well in new hampshire, south carolina, even in florida, this is going to be a long slog. it is all about getting delegates. not just winning primaries, but getting delegates. there is a strong anti-romney feeling in the republican party that is going to manifest itself every step along the way. >> and he cannot seem to get past that 25%. >> if you compare the votes he got in iowa this year with what he got in 2008, the difference is six votes. not 6%. he had essentially the same support four years ago.

>> but he almost didn't go to iowa -- >> the clinton-republicans don't fall in love, they fall in line, -- the line is republicans don't fall in love, they fall in line. >> when i say that santorum is a plausible, it does not mean he as much of a chance of beating rodney. he has a path. second in new hampshire, he does really well in south carolina, all the others dropped out, perrys and newts dropped out, and he is one on one. what i mean by plausible is that unlike cain or perry or bachmann or even gingrich, you can see santorum has the experience and background, stability, if you like, of somebody who could be presented -- >> whoa, whoa, whoa, "new york times," front page, he is part

of the whole tape for plate culture of washington. he tried to get lobbyists jobs -- jobs for republican lobbyists, the tom delay k street strategy. when he got out of office, he got a lot of money for medical people because of the earmarks. once you start picking over his record he looks like a creature of washington. >> he is not a limited government republican. >> that is what i wrote this morning. he has his weaknesses, especially among republican constituents, because 2010 was a year of republicans insisting on small government and rebeling against obama's overstretch. santorum is not a small government republican. compare him with the other pretenders, i think he stands shoulders above them. >> last man standing here.

>> newt gingrich is standing, but not very tall, i guess. newt gingrich on getting even. >> i want to congratulate a good friend of ours, somebody we admire and his family we admire, and that is it santorum. he waged a great, positive campaign. i admire the courage, discipline, the way he focused, and i admire how positive it was. i wish i could say that for all the candidates. >> he wishes he could say that for mitt romney, with the former speaker says is a liar. the enemy of my enemy is my friend, evan. >> is not the best newt. i like that at the newt -- the happy newt. the angry, petulant newt is not the best figure. >> i love the petulant newt because it makes great copy. when politicians misbehave and

you see them as human beings, is an interesting phenomenon. >> he argues it is all this super pac money that brought him down. >> no question about it. the super pac money from romney's pac went after him to the nail. ron paul, too. >> if you look at a graph of gingrich's path and you see the spending overlaid on it, you can see that his downfall is directly attributable to negative ads. >> romney had something to work with. >> of course. >> the $1.6 million that gingrich got from fannie and freddie, i forget which one it was -- >> the single most effective ad was from ron paul, called "serial hypocrisies," ran over and over again. newt shot up in the polls

because of his record in the 1990's, but there were elements of his history that were not generally known. i do this for a living, and i did not know about the nancy pelosi ad until a few weeks ago. when i saw it, i was surprised. i also had not known about his connection with freddie mac. it came up the first time in one of the debates. that was the first i heard of it. if you are a voter in iowa and you hear about newt and you remember what he did in 1994, he would be inclined to support him. then you learn about this, hammered home in the ads, and those two elements were the single most important things. >> bloomberg news reports that romney's 8-vote margin, $75.44 a vote. rick santorum, $10.12 a vote. rick perry, $218.65 a vote. [laughter]

>> what about john connally? $17 million. one delegate. that is the world-record. >> the unkindest cut gingrich received came not just from romney but from the establishment that took him down. let me define the establishment -- i'm talking about republicans inside the beltway who knew him best, who served with him in congress. they really went after him. some columnists, also. he is not going to forget this. it is that rejection that is going to bother him, and it goes beyond new hampshire, it goes beyond florida. he is going to teach those folks in less than -- those folks a lesson. he is going to teach them a lesson in a way they experience it at the polls.

>> there is still is angry, white, middle-class male force out there, a seat in force. romney is not really their guy. santorum for the moment. that is a force to be tapped, and nobody has really found a way to do it. >> if you listen to santorum's speech, he talks about this appeal, how hard work paid off for him, how his grandfather and father taught him the value of eight. -- of it. >> but you have to think about santorum also in sioux city, iowa last sunday, when he talked about entitlements, that "i don't want black people's -- i don't want to make black people's lives better by giving them someone else's money," the suggestion that black people just shiftless and lazy and the hard-working people or white people.

you look at the statistics, of course, blowing his thesis out of the water as to who is getting entitlements and he was 9. the pending he did in sioux city is something that is going to haunt him. >> well, except that the pandering works, and there are a lot of angry, white middle-class males out there. >> we go back to our friend mark shields in new hampshire. >> we know that new hampshire can turn on a dime and new hampshire voters do not like a coronation. one of the people who is very much under the gun, this is his last chance, is jon huntsman. he has put all of his eggs in this basket. but we have two debates back to back this weekend. this is the last chance a number of candidates realize they have to make their case not only for themselves but against the leader. >> romney is way ahead in the polls in new hampshire, but as mark said, new hampshire is a

quirky place. asked walter mondale or both george bushes if you don't believe me. >> or hillary. >> no republican candidate has ever won iowa and new hampshire, and a subsequent presidential candidates -- >> you can still win by losing or lose by when, like lyndon johnson or even bush and buchanan in 1992, where buchanan was second but he won a moral victory. it depends on the margin between romney and whoever is second. it is santorum and he comes within a single digits, and it is seen as a santorum victory. >> content in 1992, paul tsongas -- >> comeback kid. it is all about expectations and the margin. it is not necessarily what order of finish, except that santorum has to show that he can beat ron paul and, of course, all the others. >> you wonder about the ron paul

factor. the slogan is "live free or die." apparently this is ron paul territory. but he has not done much up there. >> you look at the trend, ron paul is picking up in new hampshire. >> the other thing is the independent vote in new hampshire -- >> undeclared. >> in iowa they went heavily for ron paul. one-day republicans. >> republican elders are being very nice to ron paul these days. they are praying he does not run as an independent. >> he is sort of like jesse jackson in 1984. he has a constituency, an important one in the party. not going to win the nomination, but he could end up in tampa with a strong number of delegates, and he will command

respect, perhaps a speech. >> he is going to demand more than that. >> platform? that is going to be a problem for the republican "establishment" -- >> i don't know how you all can accomplish -- >> we are going to have to hold a meeting to decide. [laughter] as you know, we meet in a masonic temple. everybody brings a live lamb, except karl rove, who brings the incense. lots of chanting. you would enjoy it. >> i gather jon huntsman would not be allowed at the meeting? >> depends on new hampshire. we like winners. >> you look at those polls, he is way down, even after all the work. >> it is hard to know what his narrative, his story, what his appeal is. what exactly is huntsman offering? until he can answer that in a

succinct way -- >> "the boston globe" found some virtue -- >> that is not a recommendation for republicans in new hampshire. >> he is a very virtuous guy, but he thought his own past. because he looks like a rich kid, he needed right at the beginning to say i am different, and he did not do that. >> we did not say anything about mitt romney's religion. was that a factor? >> absolutely. polls show this -- a lot of evangelical christians think that the church of latter-day saints is a cult. that hurt him, no question. >> this past week was the first time i had seen some of that come into my e-mail box. it may be there, but it wasn't overt. >> it won't be a factor in new hampshire. >> but it could be a factor in south carolina. >> absolutely.

>> i am excited about getting out with the real republicans and laying out -- not that there are real republicans in iowa, but the fact is that it was a pretty loosey-goosey process, and you had a lot of people there that admitted they were democrats in the caucuses last night. >> rick perry says he is going to stay in the race, looking fondly on south carolina, is kind of folks, he thinks. i call your attention to that the margin in wednesday's politico. he notes that some movement conservatives have called an emergency meeting in texas to find a consensus republican candidate. they are looking for a romney a stopper. if so, is that person rick santorum? >> look, these ideas of conspiracies, meetings and all that, it is rather amusing and people feel self-important. in the end, is going to have no

effect. >> are you going? [laughter] >> i stick to one conspiracy at that time. i'm with the washington masonic temple, and that is it. that is my membership. the point is this -- perry had his chance in iowa, had his chance in the debates. the most memorable line he has uttered has been "oops." he has not succeeded and he will not succeed in south carolina. i am not sure why he is going, and that he has a lot of money and he still has hope. it looks as if it if there is going to be a consensus candidate who will oppose romney, it will be sent to a room. >> -- it will be santorum. >> on npr we had a piece of tape this week when rick santorum was talking about john f. kennedy and his meeting with the baptist ministers, and he said that when he added, it made

him want to throw up. that is the kind of thing that will not play well for santorum. >> i think in addition to the "oops" line from rick perry was his line on the sunday talk shows were the said that his campaign has had a lot of bumps and grinds along the way. [laughter] >> romney is a vulnerable because he is not one of their guys, but there is no other. there is nobody who can beat him a bit that is the reality. >> we have not talked about president obama yet. $500 million in cuts to the pentagon, a leaner, meaner, more agile force, iranians missing around with the strait of hormuz, and recess appointments. let's talk about this new military the president is talking about, evan. >> you can cut an awful lot, but they are talking to a question -- are they going to go -- they are dodging the big question, which is are they going to go

after the big ticket pieces of hardware? we're never going to fight two wars. did the real question is are we going to cut become useless, cold war pieces of hardware -- >> such as? >> they have an amphibious vehicles that the marines can hit the beaches, which they have not done since 1944 -- >> you never know. >> do we really need another carrier? that is where the money is an -- >> i would say it you need another carrier if you have an agile force and keep focused on the pacific. >> even in the bush administration -- not one ever, but most of the time, when they tried to cut a big piece of hardware, they got such opposition from very senior people in their own party in congress who had building elements in their district or their states. >> the main thing in this new

strategy is to still try to maintain his supremacy on the seas and in the air. as long as that is part of our strategy, i think we are ok. this is a military-driven exercise. it is not just a political- driven exercise from the white house. we have a senior military officers, and the criticism from the republican candidates is manufactured. >> i don't think so at all. this is not about pieces of hardware. this is about a reduction in our capacity to fight on the land. i know, says the war in iraq is over, and he essentially announced that the war in afghanistan is going to be over in two years. nobody wants a land war anywhere. however, it is not what you want, but what the world and you. -- world hands you. we had pearl harbor, the invasion of korea, 9/11, and the

invasion of kuwait, which came out of nowhere. we needed half a million americans, and succeeded in kuwait. the total strength of the army is going to be less than the number of troops we had in kuwait in 1991. that means we are held hostage. if you imagine that the arabs and the gulf are not looking around and thinking that america is sick of any involvement in there and is reducing its capacities, what side of we going to go with? who are we going to talk to? i can see the saudis dialing up the pakistanis -- you have a bomb, send us a dozen. >> we have enormous treasure and humanity in wars in that area of the world. i don't think the way it has turned out is terribly good, even afghanistan, which we should have done initially. it is turning out to be just sucking our blood. >> the question is not deciding to go here or there. the question is are you going to

have any capacity to ever engage on the ground you shrink the way we do? the answer is probably going no. >> it always boils down to that soldier or marine or navy seal -- nothoa, whoa whoa, they're talking about celiminating the army. they are cutting 20%. >> to a point where it cannot sustain the war in iowaikuwait 1991. >> i see no evidence that we cannot fight a land war. i see no evidence of that. >> i suspect that this debate is going to continue for months, maybe years. last word. thanks. see you next week.

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